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Mostrando postagens de agosto, 2025

Binance Becomes First Exchange to List Trump-Linked WLFI Token

Binance is the first crypto exchange to list World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the Trump-family-linked decentralized finance (DeFI) project, with trading set to begin Monday afternoon UTC time, according to a recent announcement. Deposits are already live, while withdrawals are scheduled to begin Tuesday. Binance will apply its “seed tag” designation, a label reserved for innovative but high-risk tokens. Until now, WLFI tokens were non-transferable by design, a compliance-driven restriction meant to keep the presale tokens from being freely traded, and Binance’s listing marks the shift to allowing transfers and opening markets on a centralized exchange for the first time. Following the Binance announcement, South Korean exchange Upbit also said it will list WLFI. On Binance, to access WLFI trading, users must complete quizzes acknowledging heightened volatility and risk disclosures. The token will launch on three blockchains simultaneously: Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain, and Solana....

Red September? Bitcoin Risks Sliding to $100K After 6% Monthly Drop

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This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole. Bitcoin (BTC) has breached key support levels in a sign of increasing bearish momentum that suggests a risk of a slide to $100,000. The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell 6.5% in August, ending the four-month winning streak as the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bled $751 million, according to data source SoSoValue . The recent price drop saw bitcoin break below several key support levels, including the Ichimoku cloud, and the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). It also pierced crucial horizontal support zones formed by the May high of $111,965 and the December high of $109,364, according to the daily chart sourced from TradingView. These breakdowns underscore growing market weakness, confirming a bearish shift in key momentum indicators such as the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) and the MACD histogram. The short-term exponential moving average (E...

Bitcoin's Rough August Wiped Out Summer Rally; What September Might Bring

There are few things more insufferable in financial markets than seasonal indicator discussions. The grandaddy may be "sell in May, then go away," which gets dragged out every spring, but probably hasn't been a valid signal since the days of Jesse Livermore, when traders literally sold in May and then headed to the beach for the summer. A set of seasonal indicators have developed around crypto even as the markets — just a few years old — have far too few observations for anything to be statistically valid. Among the favorites is that August tends to be rough month for prices. Credit where it's due, though — the seasonality fans got it right this time, at least for bitcoin (BTC). Despite continuing inflows in spot ETFs, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell flipping from hawk to dove, and touching a new record high, bitcoin (with just a few hours left to go), has slipped 8% this month. At just above $108,000 bitcoin has also declined about 13% since hitting that ne...

Given Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance, Is it Time to Fully Ditch Gold in Favor of Bitcoin?

Given the Trump administration’s vocal and demonstrated support for crypto, some investors are wondering whether gold’s days as the world’s favorite hedge asset are numbered. André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, suggests the choice isn’t so simple. In a post on X Saturday, he offered a rule-of-thumb: gold still works best as protection against stock market losses, while bitcoin increasingly acts as a counterweight to bond market stress. Gold: Equity Hedge of Choice The reasoning starts with history. When equities sell off, investors often rush into gold . Decades of market data back this up. Gold’s long-run correlation with the S&P 500 has hovered near zero, and during market stress it often dips negative. For example, in the 2022 bear market, gold prices rose about 5% even as the S&P 500 tumbled nearly 20%. That pattern illustrates why gold is still considered the classic “safe haven.” Bitcoin: A Bond-Market Counterweight Bitcoin, by co...

DOGE Rebounds From $0.21 Floor, Cup-and-Handle Pattern Targets $0.30

News Background Dogecoin fell 5% in the 24-hour period from Aug. 28 at 09:00 to Aug. 29 at 08:00, tracking broader risk-asset weakness. Between Aug. 24–25, an unknown whale shifted 900 million DOGE (~$200 million) to Binance wallets, fueling concerns of distribution and triggering market volatility. Open interest in DOGE futures slipped 8% after the inflows, reflecting lighter speculative positioning. On-chain data shows whales continue to build exposure, with 680 million DOGE accumulated in August , signaling institutional demand despite retail selling. Dogecoin’s network fundamentals remain firm, with hashrate climbing above 2.9 petahashes per second , underscoring mining security at record levels. Price Action Summary DOGE dropped from $0.22 to $0.21 in the 24-hour trading window, a 5% decline across a $0.011 (≈3%) range between $0.23 and $0.21. The sharpest move occurred at 07:24–08:23 GMT on Aug. 29, when DOGE fell 0.57% from $0.22 to $0.21 on a 27.36 million volume sp...

XRP Bullish Patterns Point to $5 as Korean Buyers Start to Accumulate

News Background XRP fell sharply alongside broader market weakness, retreating 4.3% in the 24-hour session from August 28 at 13:00 to August 29 at 12:00. On-chain data showed Korean exchanges absorbing 16 million XRP (≈$45.5 million) during the selloff, pointing to regional institutional demand even as retail wallets reduced exposure. South Korea has historically been a driver of speculative crypto trading, often leading price action in certain altcoins (sometimes called the “Kimchi Premium” effect). If large wallets associated with Korean exchanges or institutions are accumulating at support, it suggests regional demand is stepping in to absorb retail selling pressure, effectively putting a floor under XRP. For global traders, that sets up a narrative of distribution vs. accumulation: while some whales were moving $200 million in DOGE to Binance (a distribution signal), Korean desks were adding XRP exposure (an accumulation signal). XRP Ledger activity picked up, with active ad...

‘Crypto’s Flash Boys’: A Q&A With Austin Federa on DoubleZero

As blockchain ecosystems mature, the speed and efficiency of the infrastructure for nodes have become more than just technical considerations —they're strategic imperatives. Leading the charge in this space is Austin Federa, former Head of Strategy at the Solana Foundation, who is gearing up to launch DoubleZero , a protocol designed to redefine how blockchains communicate and scale. In a wide-ranging conversation with CoinDesk, Federa delved into the motivations behind DoubleZero, the challenges it addresses and that may come out of it, and why its vision for a high-performance networking layer could be the foundation for the next generation of decentralized systems. DoubleZero was first announced in December 2024 as a blockchain layer aimed to be faster than the internet and therefore crucial for crypto trades. Since then nearly 12.57% of SOL staked is operating on the DoubleZero testnet. The mainnet launch is expected to happen sometime in September. This interview has been e...

Pump.fun Buybacks Fuel PUMP Token Revival Amid Broader Crypto Downturn

Pump.fun’s native token, PUMP, has bucked the market-wide downturn this week, rising by 17% as the protocol leverages platform fees to repurchase tokens. The buybacks are designed to support holders by reducing circulating supply and absorbing sell pressure, a model increasingly common across crypto projects. At the time of publishing, PUMP is trading at $0.0035, about 40% higher than a month ago but still down 50% from its July debut, when it quickly fell from $0.007 to $0.0024 in just 10 days. The sharp post-launch decline reflected the fading of initial hype, but recent momentum suggests buybacks are helping stabilize the token’s market. The driver is Pump.fun’s revenue engine. The platform earns fees on every token created through its service, a model that has generated $734 millio n over the past year, with volumes peaking in January during the boom in celebrity-driven meme coins like TRUMP and MELANIA, along with thousands of copycat tokens that followed. Since inception, mo...

Strategy’s Preferred Shares Form a Bullish Circle Around Bitcoin

Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this piece owns shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR). Microstrategy, now known as Strategy (MSTR), has reshaped U.S. capital markets in 2025 by issuing a series of preferred stock under tickers STRK , STRF , STRD and STRC . Collectively, these offerings raised about $5.6 billion year-to-date, making up for 12% of all U.S. IPO issuance (preferred or common) , according to Strategy . That scale alone underscores both investor appetite and the company’s role as the most visible corporate proxy for bitcoin (BTC). Performance across the preferreds has varied. STRF leads with a lifetime return of 31%, followed by STRK at 19% and STRC at 8%, while STRD has lagged with a negative 6% return. Still, the circle of financing vehicles has given Strategy a diversified base to fund its treasury. As of August, the company holds 632,457 BTC, cementing its position as the world’s largest corporate holder of the asset. The firm’s enterprise value relative to bitcoin NAV s...

Binance Futures Trading Back Online After Brief Outage

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume, restarted futures trading after a brief outage caused by a “system issue” affecting its Unified Margin (UM) product. "The issue affecting Futures UM trading on Binance has been resolved. All futures trading is now fully operational,” Binance said in a post on X . The outage left traders unable to close or manage positions, raising concerns across the derivatives market where Binance commands a large share of global volume. UM, launched in 2022, allows users to pool margin assets across contracts and collateral types — meaning a shutdown has broader implications than a standard product outage. Binance has over $40 billion in open interest across crypto futures positions as of Friday morning. Past disruptions on the exchange, often tied to technical bottlenecks during periods of high volatility, have typically lasted from under an hour to several hours. UPDATE (Aug. 29, 07:10 UTC) : Updates headline and story with Binance...

Bitcoin Headed to $190K on Institutional Wave, Research Firm Says

Asia-focused Tiger Research has set a Q3 price target of $190,000 for bitcoin (BTC), arguing that record global liquidity, structural ETF demand, and new 401(k) access give the market its strongest setup since 2021. Tiger’s model pegs a “base price” of $135,000, then layers on multipliers for fundamentals (+3.5%) and macro conditions (+35%) to reach the $190,000 forecast — giving a 67% from this week’s average $113,000. The report relies on three key drivers. The M2 money supply exceeding $90 trillion, ETF and corporate accumulation now accounting for 6% of bitcoin’s supply, and a regulatory green light that has opened U.S. retirement accounts to crypto. Trump’s executive order allowing 401(k) exposure adds what Tiger calls “a definitive signal of bitcoin’s transition to a core institutional holding.” Even a 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion pool would equal nearly $90 billion of demand. Accumulation is visible. ETFs collectively hold 1.3 million BTC, while Strategy (MSTR) owns...

Public Token Treasuries and Tokenization are Fantastic for Crypto, But Risks Remain, Binance's CZ Says

HONG KONG — Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao believes the convergence of equity markets and crypto is ushering in a new era for digital assets, one that expands access to institutional capital and broadens crypto’s global reach. But he cautions that the sector still faces significant risks, especially as it enters its first major bull cycle since these structures gained traction. Speaking at BTC Asia in Hong Kong, CZ said moves by public companies to hold bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets — following the example set by MicroStrategy — mark a breakthrough moment. “In the world’s largest economy, 90%-95% of the money is managed by institutions,” he noted. “Until ETFs and treasury companies, those guys couldn’t participate in crypto in a large way.” By bringing crypto exposure to equity markets in the U.S., Hong Kong, Japan and beyond, CZ said the industry is effectively “bringing the equity markets to crypto, or bringing crypto to them — depending ho...

As Bitcoin Bounces, On-Chain Data Point to Selling Pressure Near $113.6K

As bitcoin (BTC) bulls aim to reestablish an upward price trajectory, they may face resistance from sellers near the $113,600 level, according to on-chain data. BTC has already bounced to $112,800 from sub-$108,800 levels hit Tuesday, CoinDesk data show. The bounce is likely fueled by a fresh all-time high in the S&P 500 and a better-than-expected earnings report by Nvidia, one of the largest publicly listed companies in the world by market value and a bellwether for all things artificial intelligence. The path ahead may prove challenging, as investors holding at a loss may look to sell into any price rebound. "Currently, bitcoin trades beneath the cost basis of both the 1-month ($115.6k) and 3-month ($113.6k) cohorts, leaving these investors under stress. Any relief rally is therefore likely to encounter resistance, as short-term holders seek to exit at breakeven," analytics firm Glassnode said in a report published Wednesday. Glassnode's cost basis metric reve...

XRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns

News Background XRP extended its late-August advance, climbing nearly 9% on the week while trading tightly around the $3.00 psychological level. Gemini launched an XRP-rewards Mastercard with WebBank, offering up to 4% cashback in XRP. The release pushed Gemini ahead of Coinbase in U.S. iOS app rankings. Institutional flows into XRP-linked products reached an estimated $25 million daily, adding depth to the market backdrop. Analysts continue to monitor breakout setups, with longer-term technical targets cited near $27 if the current compression phase resolves upward. Price Action Summary Across the 24-hour session ending August 27 at 04:00 GMT, XRP traded in a $0.09 band between $2.95 and $3.05, closing at $2.98 for a 1.3% intraday decline. The heaviest activity came at 20:00 GMT, when volumes surged to 273.15 million — more than 4x the 62.47 million daily average — as XRP briefly touched $3.05 before sellers capped the move. In the final hour (03:04–04:03 GMT), XRP consolid...

DOGE Faces Selling Pressure as $200M Whale Transfer to Binance Caps Rally

News Background Between August 24–25, a whale shifted 900 million DOGE (over $200 million) into Binance wallets, sparking fears of a broader sell-off. Prices briefly fell from $0.25 to test $0.23 support on elevated volumes. Despite this, on-chain data shows whales accumulated 680 million DOGE through August, creating a tug-of-war between distribution and accumulation. Futures positioning weakened, with open interest sliding 8% in the aftermath of the transfer, highlighting reduced speculative leverage. Broader meme-coin sentiment remains tied to macro signals, with Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks fueling a temporary sector-wide rally. Price Action Summary From August 27 at 03:00 to August 28 at 02:00, DOGE traded in a tight $0.01 (3%) range, holding around $0.22. Peak institutional participation came at 20:00 GMT on August 27, when DOGE advanced from $0.219 to $0.224 on 1.26 billion volume — nearly 4x the hourly norm. Late in the session (01:20–02:19 GMT on Aug. 28), DOGE ral...

Ether Futures Open Interest on CME Hits Record $10B, Hinting at Institutional Resurgence

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The CME's regulated ether (ETH) futures market is heating up as the ongoing rotation out of bitcoin (BTC) accelerates. The total notional open interest (OI) in ETH futures recently surpassed $10 billion for the first time on record, according to data shared by the exchange with CoinDesk. Early this month, the number of large open interest holders hit a record 101. Notional OI represents the dollar value of the number of active or open contracts at a given time. The CME offers standard contracts sized at 50ETH and micro contracts sized at 0.1 ETH. The large holders are those that hold at least 25 ether contracts open at a given time. The new high in open interest accompanies other record-breaking metrics, including the number of open micro ether contracts, which has exceeded 500,000, and ether notional options open interest topping $1 billion. Ether options OI in contract terms reached a year-to-date high of over 4,800 contracts. "We're certainly seeing a resurgence and...

Metaplanet Shares Jump 6% on International Stock Sale, Financing Moves

Metaplanet Inc. (3350) rose 5.7% on Wednesday after the Tokyo-based company said it plans to sell shares to foreign investors, provided updates on recent capital actions and said it will temporarily suspend warrant exercises. The company plans to issue up to 555 million new Tokyo-traded shares through an international offering, subject to shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting on Sept. 1, it said in a post on X. The offering is expected to raise around 130.3 billion yen ($880 million), with the majority allocated to bitcoin (BTC) purchases and a smaller portion to its bitcoin income generation business. The move is intended to expand bitcoin net asset value (NAV) and strengthen ties with global institutional investors. Metaplanet also reported on progress on the exercise of its 20th Series of Stock Acquisition Rights . Between Aug. 14 and Aug. 26, investors exercised 275,000 rights, resulting in the issuance of 27.5 million new shares at prices ranging from 966 y...

Unified Crypto Lobbyists: Protect Software Developers, Senate, or We're Out

The crypto industry's Washington lobbyists are trying to draw a line in the sand over the market structure bill that's steaming through the U.S. Senate, saying they can't back a law that wouldn't fully protect software developers from being held responsible for bad actors abusing their technology. The industry made its case to the Senate's Banking and Agriculture committees "with one voice," sending a letter Wednesday signed by Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, a16z, Uniswap Labs and more than a hundred other crypto businesses and organizations, including almost all of the major U.S. lobbying groups. This unified effort comes the week before the Senate gets back to work, and likely rekindles full negotiations on the language of the legislation that represents the industry's top U.S. goal. "Provide robust, nationwide protections for software developers and non-custodial service providers in market structure legislation," the letter said. "Witho...

XRP Eyes $3.20 as Bull-Flag Pattern Forms, Key Support at $2.89

News Background CME Group recently said its crypto futures suite surpassed $30 billion in notional open interest for the first time, with XRP futures crossing $1 billion in just over three months — the fastest pace for a new contract. Broader crypto sentiment improved after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, which boosted expectations of policy easing later this year. XRP continues to trade under the shadow of U.S. regulatory uncertainty, even as corporate treasuries explore cross-border payment pilots with Ripple’s technology. Price Action Summary From August 26 at 03:00 to August 27 at 02:00, XRP gained 3.60%, rising from $2.89 to $2.99 within a $0.20 intraday band. The sharpest move came at 19:00 GMT on August 26, when XRP pierced $3.08 on extraordinary 167.60 million volume before rejecting at that level. In the final hour (01:21–02:20 GMT on Aug. 27), XRP oscillated within a $0.13 corridor, consolidating gains while holding steady near the $2.99–$3.00 zone. ...

Ether, Dogecoin, Bitcoin Plunge Sees $900M in Bullish Bets Liquidated

Crypto markets were hit with nearly $900 million in liquidations to start the week, wiping out overleveraged longs after a sharp correction in both bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH). ETH traders bore the brunt, with $320 million in forced unwinds, followed by $277 million tied to bitcoin. Solana's SOL (SOL), XRP (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE) saw another $90 million combined, according to Coinglass. The wipeouts came as ETH fell back from $4,700 toward $4,400 and BTC slipped to $110,200, tracking weakness in the S&P 500. “This sharp move appears to be the result of overleveraged positioning, particularly following ETH’s recent run-up, and an overnight dip in the S&P 500, which weighed on risk assets more broadly,” a trader note from Derixe.xyz noted. Volatility surged in the aftermath. Daily BTC vol jumped from 15% to 38%, while ETH’s spiked from 41% to 70%, data from Derive.xyz shows. That spread suggests traders see ether as the more fragile bet right now, as its rallies draw...

Polymarket Bettors Doubt Trump Can Topple Jerome Powell or Lisa Cook This Year

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Prediction markets are signaling skepticism that Donald Trump will be able to bend the Federal Reserve to his will this year, even as the U.S. President moves to fire a Fed Governor for what he believes is just cause. On Polymarket, bettors put the chance of Jerome Powell being forced out as Fed Chair in 2025 at just 10% , suggesting investors don’t believe Trump can override the central bank’s independence before Powell’s term expires in May 2026. Trump’s push to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook tells a different story. He wants her removed over allegations of mortgage fraud, per a letter posted on Truth Social , making her the first sitting governor ever targeted by a presidential dismissal. Cook, however, has refused to step down, arguing that “for cause” removals must apply to misconduct in office, not private financial dealings predating her appointment. Markets are pricing a 27% chance of Cook's ouster by December 31, indicating some risk of legal or political fallout but s...

Bitcoin Flash Crash Triggers $550M in Sunday Liquidations as Ether Rotation Builds

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped under $111,000 in a sudden weekend flash crash after a whale offloaded 24,000 BTC, or more than $300 million at current prices, into thin liquidity. The whale sent the full balance to Hyperunite, with 12,000 BTC transferred Sunday alone, as CoinDesk reported earlier Monday. That move erased gains from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday and sparked heavy forced selling across the market. The sudden selloff fueled liquidations worth $238 million in bitcoin positions and $216 million in ether (ETH), part of more than $550 million cleared in the past day. BTC prices briefly touched below $111,000 before stabilizing near $112,800 as of Asian morning hours Monday. Liquidations serve as a stark reminder of how fragile positioning can be in the crypto market. When traders pile in with leverage and the market moves against them, exchanges step in and automatically close those bets. A flush of long liquidations can reset the market for a cleaner bounce, while a ...

Fed Dovish Turn Lifts XRP Toward $3.10, Analysts Eye $5–$8 Targets

News Background XRP extended its rally on August 23 as institutional trading volumes spiked above averages, reinforcing bullish sentiment after weeks of consolidation. The move coincided with dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, which strengthened expectations of September rate cuts and triggered rotation into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Regulatory clarity following Ripple’s litigation outcome continues to support institutional flows, while analysts now point to ambitious $5–$8 targets should XRP break decisively above near-term resistance. Price Action Summary • XRP climbed 3% during the 24-hour period from August 23 at 15:00 to August 24 at 14:00, rising from $3.02 to $3.09 before consolidating back at $3.02. • The token traded in a $0.09 band, peaking at $3.09 on elevated 58.8 million volume—well above the 24-hour average of 33.2 million. • Support formed near $3.00 during the 11:00 candle on 46.6 million turnover, validating demand at the ...

Bitcoin Reverses Powell Spike With a Flash Crash as Options Market Signals Jitters Ahead

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Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $111,000 during the overnight trade, reversing Friday's spike caused by Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech, as a whale sold into illiquid market conditions. The cryptocurrency's price fell by over 2% from $114,666 to $112,546 in under ten minutes to 07:40 UTC. The so-called flash crash occurred when a single whale sold 24,000 BTC, worth over $300 million, according to blockchain data firm Timechainindex.com. "This entity liquidated their entire 24,000 balance, sending all of it to Hyperunite. They transferred 12,000 just today and are still actively selling, which is likely contributing to the ongoing price drop," the firm's researcher Sani said on X , adding that the whale still holds a total of 152,874 BTC across all associated addresses, including 5,266 BTC. "The funds originally came from HTX about six years ago and had remained inactive until recent transactions involving one of their addresses containing approximately 24,00...

As ETH Breaks Above $4,900, Analyst Sums Up Crypto Market: ‘BTC Is Exhausted, ETH Isn’t’

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Ether (ETH) pushed into uncharted territory Sunday, clearing $4,900 on Coinbase at 5:40 p.m. UTC and surpassing its prior record of $4,867 set on Nov. 8, 2021. The five-year ETH-USD price chart from TradingView shows a clean, multi-year breakout: ETH has finally vaulted the 2021 high after a long consolidation, leaving no historical overhead levels to lean on. This is what traders call price discovery — the market is printing new highs with only psychology and order flow to guide it rather than prior chart resistance. The 5-day view fills in the tape action. After a fast run from the mid-$4,700s, ETH pushed through $4,900 and reached an intraday high around $4,946.90. At the time of the chart snapshot — 6:48 p.m. UTC — the last price was about $4,941.57. That sequence signals buyers absorbed supply near the old ceiling and then forced a fresh high, a classic breakout pattern. Analyst Miles Deutsher summed up the leadership shift as “BTC is exhausted, ETH isn’t.” In plain English...

Bitcoin Mining Faces 'Incredibly Difficult' Market as Power Becomes the Real Currency

Jackson Hole, Wy. — Bitcoin miners have long been defined by the boom-and-bust rhythm of the four-year halving cycle. But the game has now changed, according to some of the industry’s most prominent executives at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole earlier this week. The rise of exchange-traded funds, surging demand for power, and the prospect of artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping infrastructure needs mean that miners must find ways to diversify or risk being left behind. “We used to come here and talk about hash rate,” said Matt Schultz, CEO of Cleanspark. “Now we’re talking about how to monetize megawatts.” For years, mining companies—which derived their main source of revenue solely from mining bitcoin—lived and died by the four-year bitcoin halving cycle. Every cycle, rewards were slashed in half, and miners scrambled to cut costs or scale up to survive. But that rhythm, according to these executives, no longer defines the business. “The four-year cycle is effectively broke...

Crypto in Late 2025 and Beyond: What Powell’s Speech Signals for Rates, Inflation and Assets

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at this year's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium balanced rising inflation risk against a fragile labor market, and the political calendar now raises the odds that his eventual successor will be less cautious on rates. Powell’s message was deliberately sober. He said the “effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible” and will keep filtering through with uncertain timing. Headline PCE inflation ran 2.6% in July and core 2.9%, with goods prices flipping from last year’s declines to gains. He framed the labor market as a “curious kind of balance,” with payroll growth slowing to about 35,000 a month in recent months from 168,000 in 2024 while unemployment sits at 4.2%. Immigration has cooled, labor force growth has softened and the breakeven pace of hiring needed to keep joblessness steady is lower, which masks fragility. Net-net, he said near-term risks are “tilted to the upside” for inflation and “to the downside” ...